pubg loot boxes

A look at the expected value and profit/loss for certain loot boxes from PlayerUnknown's Battlegrounds using historical price data obtained using the Steam Community api.

how to calculate

The amount each item in the loot box adds to the return is determined by its market price (minus the buyer premium) multiplied by the probability of obtaining that item from the crate.

This does not address any discount that needs to be applied to the "win". Steam wallet values cannot be withdrawn. They must be used on Steam platform.

"East Erangel Police Crate" from 2021-02-21
Item nameItem probabilityMarket price (avg)Buyer premiumSale netItem return
Cargo Pants (Beige)0.2$0.03$0.02$0.010.0018
East Erangel Police Shirt0.045$0.187$0.02$0.160.0072
Sweater and Dress Shirt (Beige)0.2$0.063$0.02$0.040.008
Fancy Shoes0.2$0.056$0.02$0.040.008
Vikendi Elite Attendant Shoes0.2$0.05$0.02$0.030.006
Vikendi Elite Attendant Uniform0.0032$12.166$1.59$10.580.033856
Baby Bear Face Mask0.013$13.7$1.79$11.910.15483
Baby Bear Face Shirt0.045$2.899$0.38$2.520.1134
Constable's Pants0.045$0.083$0.02$0.060.00315
Constable's Hat0.013$0.793$0.1$0.690.00897
Constable's Gloves0.025$3.063$0.4$2.660.0665
Vikendi Elite Attendant Hat0.006$4.936$0.64$4.290.02574
Constable's Coat0.0032$4.733$0.62$4.120.013184

selected crates

aviator crate

price range
$0.11 - $0.38
expected value range
$0.03 - $0.03
sell is best play
0.9967793881

biker crate

price range
$0.03 - $0.196
expected value range
$0.03 - $0.12
sell is best play
0.4263508512

desperado crate

price range
$0.03 - $0.127
expected value range
$0.19 - $1.51
sell is best play
0.9987699877
low EV and high key cost make the price of the case irrelevant when considering profit/loss

east erangel police crate

price range
$0.03 - $0.102
expected value range
$0.31 - $1.35
sell is best play
1
low EV and high key cost make the price of the case irrelevant when considering profit/loss

equinox crate

price range
$0.03 - $0.031
expected value range
$0.23 - $0.57
sell is best play
1

fever crate

price range
$0.03 - $1.191
expected value range
$0.20 - $5.93
sell is best play
0.9956521739
low EV and high key cost make the price of the case irrelevant when considering profit/loss

militia crate

price range
$0.032 - $3.597
expected value range
$0.03 - $1.53
sell is best play
0.5312693498
figure is ugly. neither logarithmic scale for this chart nor chopping data seem appropriate.

raider crate

price range
$0.136 - $2.252
expected value range
$0.03 - $0.66
sell is best play
1

download data (mysql)